EUR/USD Forecast: Sideline VS. Downtrend

EUR/USD Forecast: 7th April, 2015

EUR/USD jumped directly to 1.1055 level to test it 3 times during March 2015. This was fast for my expectations and it actually changed my thoughts about the bulls of EUR/USD, they are stronger than everyone thought. USD was weaker due to the bad US economic data during the last 2 weeks and this was the main reason for this limited up-trend during the second half of March. I am expecting sideline moves for this pair in the next 2-3 days with a down-trend in the end, I am not recommending to trade EUR/USD really till things become much clear but, if you’ve to do that so, Short (selling) is your only option (~if it does not break 1.1055 level).

The EUR/USD still has a minor support at 1.0459 and it tested it once, I am still expecting another test for this support level. Federal Reserve System (Central bank of America) is still confusing the market about the timing of the first-rate hike, with weaker nonfarm payroll in March, everyone is pushing expectation forward from June 2015 to September 2015. Notice that Greece’s smoke is still there and will increase during the next 2 weeks. Watch out your steps because the EUR is ready to fall again!

The EUR/USD has the following major resistance and support levels:

  • RESISTANCE: 1.1055
  • SUPPORT: 1.0459

Breaking these levels in any direction will take us higher or lower.

My Daily SELL advice (30 pips stop-loss applied):

  • Sell at: 1.0455 – Take Profit 1.0400 (55 pips profits)
  • Sell at: 1.0860 – Take Profit 1.0760 (100 pips profits)
  • Sell at: 1.0800- Take Profit 1.0750 (50 pips profits)

QUICK HINT: EUR/USD is still dangerous pair, I recommend using very low leverage and do not risk more than 2% of your total equity in it. Remember to take profit quickly, I mean it again – QUICKLY!

This signal is valid during trading week(s): 7th-13th April 2015

EUR/USD is waiting the FED. statement tomorrow!

Eur/Usd 17th March, 2015

EUR/USD confirmed our expectations and answered our question in a previous post with a direct fall from 1.1172 to 1.0459 during the first 2 weeks of March, 2015.

ECB started its QE (~to buy a total of €60 billion a month in assets including government bonds, debt securities issued by European institutions and private-sector bonds). This directly means a weaker euro. The EUR/USD found a minor support at 1.0459 few days ago and it tested it once, we are expecting another test for this support level before trying any major resistance level. Federal Reserve System (Central bank of America) will release its monthly statement tomorrow 18th, March 2015 and every one is waiting any clue for the timing dilemma of the american interest rate hike. With all these elements on the table, I am not feeling comfortable to trade this pair the next few hours especially with Greece’s smoke is everywhere in the air.

The EUR/USD has the following major resistance and support levels:

  • RESISTANCE: 1.0755
  • SUPPORT: 1.0459

Breaking these levels in any direction will take us higher or lower.
My Daily SELL advice (30 pips stop loss applied):

  • Sell at: 1.0455 – Take Profit 1.0400 (55 pips profits)
  • Sell at: 1.0755 – Take Profit 1.0725 (30 pips profits)

QUICK HINT: EURUSD is still dangerous pair, I recommend using very low leverage and do not risk more than 2% of your total equity in it.

This signal is valid during trading week: 17th-20th March 2015