GBP/USD Forecast: Inflation might pushes BOE to delay interest rate hike

GBP/USD 9th April, 2015

GBP/USD (currently at: 1.4785) is still giving a clear downtrend signal. However, the bulls are stronger than I expected and they have enough control till the moment to stay above the near support at: 1.4635. Personally, I can not recommend buying this pair at this level again even with these like-paparazzi attempts to touch the strong resistance around 1.5167 at any price.

We will wait today’s interest rate announcement from the BOE before trading this pair. I am still expecting no serious action from the BOE during April 2015 driven by the (0%) inflation rate in UK during March, 2015. This data is not encouraging to raise the interest rate so, we will have to wait till we see any real change in BOE plan. In addition, Fed. minutes are still mixed and are not giving any clear hint whether the rate hike will be in june, september or even in 2016. Fed. wants to evaluate the economic data every meeting and this will give every future meeting extra importance.

My technical overview is the same and I can not see any reason to buy GBP/USD at this level without falling to 1.4334 level. I recommend buying this pair around this level (1.4334) only and it is recommended to use good stop-loss because it might fall a little bit harder before going up to test any resistance again. Put in mind that if BOE surprised the market and pushed the raise button, we can buy GBP/USD on the break of 1.5167 safely, or wait till we see the market reaction on the surprise

The GBP/USD has the following major resistance and support levels:

  • RESISTANCE: 1.5167
  • SUPPORT: 1.4334

Breaking these levels in any direction will take us higher or lower.

My Daily BUY/SELL advice (30 pips stop-loss applied):

  • Sell: at 1.4900 – Take profit 1.4800 (100 pips profits)
  • Sell: at 1.5140 – Take profit 1.5040 (100 pips profits)
  • Sell: at 1.4800 – Take profit 1.4700 (100 pips profits)
  • Buy: at 1.4340 – Take profit 1.4400 (60 pips profits)

This review is valid during trading week: 9th-15th April, 2015